Ukip soar in Newark but Tories lead

Herald Series: Prime Minister David Cameron and Mayor of London Boris Johnson at Newark railway station following a campaign visit to the town Prime Minister David Cameron and Mayor of London Boris Johnson at Newark railway station following a campaign visit to the town

The Tories are still on track to win the Newark by-election despite a massive Ukip surge, according to a poll.

Research by Survation for The Sun put the Conservatives on 36% in the constituency, ahead of Nigel Farage's party on 28% and Labour on 27%.

But Tory backing is down by 18 percentage points since the 2010 general election, when disgraced former MP Patrick Mercer secured a 16,000 majority.

Meanwhile, Ukip support has soared by 24 percentage points and Labour has gone up by four.

The findings raise the prospect of a nailbiting last week of the campaign, with Mr Farage and his party trying to build on major gains in local and European elections to secure a Commons seat for first time.

The Liberal Democrats were on just 5% - 15 percentage points down from four years ago.

Some 72% of those who voted Ukip in last week's European elections said they would be sticking with the party on Thursday.

:: Survation interviewed 606 adults in Newark by telephone on May 27 and 28. Data were weighted to represent the wider population.

Comments (7)

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7:27am Fri 30 May 14

MSG says...

UKIP will win this seat. Here is last week's vote in the euro election for this seat which is part of the east midlands region . UKIP have the momentum whilst the LIBLABCON establishment are lost for answers. Roll on Thursday. Once they have an MP they can go into the live TV general election debates and Farage can get his claws into the weak Miliband !

Newark & Sherwood Euro Election voting result in the East Midlands region -

An Independence from Europe
473
British National Party
445
Conservative Party
9,641
English Democrats
279
Green Party
1,513
Harmony Party
42
Labour Party
6,601
Liberal Democrats
1,889
UK Independence Party (UKIP)
10,027

Total
30,910
UKIP will win this seat. Here is last week's vote in the euro election for this seat which is part of the east midlands region . UKIP have the momentum whilst the LIBLABCON establishment are lost for answers. Roll on Thursday. Once they have an MP they can go into the live TV general election debates and Farage can get his claws into the weak Miliband ! Newark & Sherwood Euro Election voting result in the East Midlands region - An Independence from Europe 473 British National Party 445 Conservative Party 9,641 English Democrats 279 Green Party 1,513 Harmony Party 42 Labour Party 6,601 Liberal Democrats 1,889 UK Independence Party (UKIP) 10,027 Total 30,910 MSG
  • Score: 6

9:47am Fri 30 May 14

Martha Gunn says...

Newark and Sherwood local authority and Newark parliamentary constituency not coterminous.

Though doesn't necessarily mean your conclusions are wrong.
Newark and Sherwood local authority and Newark parliamentary constituency not coterminous. Though doesn't necessarily mean your conclusions are wrong. Martha Gunn
  • Score: 4

10:03am Fri 30 May 14

RM says...

Fingers crossed for a Ukip win. If nothing else it will give voters countrywide an opportunity to make a judgement on whether Ukip is different & is worth voting for in 2015 or is just another self serving, troughing Party like the LibLabCon.
Fingers crossed for a Ukip win. If nothing else it will give voters countrywide an opportunity to make a judgement on whether Ukip is different & is worth voting for in 2015 or is just another self serving, troughing Party like the LibLabCon. RM
  • Score: 2

11:16am Fri 30 May 14

pauls55 says...

Even if Ukip do start getting some MPs as soon as they are in the Westminster bubble they'll only end up behaving like all the others. They already have a leader who is a white, middle-aged,ex-publi
c schoolboy with accusations of having his snout in the expenses trough, so they are half way there already.
Even if Ukip do start getting some MPs as soon as they are in the Westminster bubble they'll only end up behaving like all the others. They already have a leader who is a white, middle-aged,ex-publi c schoolboy with accusations of having his snout in the expenses trough, so they are half way there already. pauls55
  • Score: -2

2:39pm Fri 30 May 14

welshmen says...

pauls55 wrote:
Even if Ukip do start getting some MPs as soon as they are in the Westminster bubble they'll only end up behaving like all the others. They already have a leader who is a white, middle-aged,ex-publi

c schoolboy with accusations of having his snout in the expenses trough, so they are half way there already.
But the difference with Nigel he has run his own business successfully for twenty years before turning to UKIP....unlike this Useless Stupid Government we have now who are mostly career politicians, time for change NOT more of the same crap we have had to put up with, enough is enough....
[quote][p][bold]pauls55[/bold] wrote: Even if Ukip do start getting some MPs as soon as they are in the Westminster bubble they'll only end up behaving like all the others. They already have a leader who is a white, middle-aged,ex-publi c schoolboy with accusations of having his snout in the expenses trough, so they are half way there already.[/p][/quote]But the difference with Nigel he has run his own business successfully for twenty years before turning to UKIP....unlike this Useless Stupid Government we have now who are mostly career politicians, time for change NOT more of the same crap we have had to put up with, enough is enough.... welshmen
  • Score: 2

1:37pm Tue 3 Jun 14

Enbrok says...

Re: The Labour Party, The Conservatives, The Liberal Democrats, The EU:

For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear. The traitor is the plague. — Cicero --- Vote UKIP stop the treachery!
Re: The Labour Party, The Conservatives, The Liberal Democrats, The EU: For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear. The traitor is the plague. — Cicero --- Vote UKIP stop the treachery! Enbrok
  • Score: 1

2:07pm Tue 3 Jun 14

Enbrok says...

pauls55 wrote:
Even if Ukip do start getting some MPs as soon as they are in the Westminster bubble they'll only end up behaving like all the others. They already have a leader who is a white, middle-aged,ex-publi

c schoolboy with accusations of having his snout in the expenses trough, so they are half way there already.
@paul55: Here's a UKIP quote that I hope answers your point: “Ukip MEPs who donate to party funds do so out of their own post-tax salaries, Ukip MEPs work for withdrawal from the EU just as they promised the voters that they would when elected in 2009. For the avoidance of doubt, Ukip MEPs are careful to observe European parliamentary rules when spending resources on advancing the goal of British withdrawal. ; This was in reply to an accusation that UKIP MEPS are required to give some of their expenses to UKIP party coffers to fight for withdrawal from the EU. Their salaries are £80+ k p.a, It cost UKIP £125k to get each MEP elected, and they asked for donations of at least a £10k donation per MEP. Their expences although quite generous do require reciepts in the main, There is no evidence of any UKIP MEP's with their snouts in the trough. Unlike the LibLabCon at Westminster who have be 'at it' for years !! I am not connected with UKIP in any way, not even a member, but I trust UKIP to be a **** sight more honest than the present crop of MP's !!
[quote][p][bold]pauls55[/bold] wrote: Even if Ukip do start getting some MPs as soon as they are in the Westminster bubble they'll only end up behaving like all the others. They already have a leader who is a white, middle-aged,ex-publi c schoolboy with accusations of having his snout in the expenses trough, so they are half way there already.[/p][/quote]@paul55: Here's a UKIP quote that I hope answers your point: “Ukip MEPs who donate to party funds do so out of their own post-tax salaries, Ukip MEPs work for withdrawal from the EU just as they promised the voters that they would when elected in 2009. For the avoidance of doubt, Ukip MEPs are careful to observe European parliamentary rules when spending resources on advancing the goal of British withdrawal. ; This was in reply to an accusation that UKIP MEPS are required to give some of their expenses to UKIP party coffers to fight for withdrawal from the EU. Their salaries are £80+ k p.a, It cost UKIP £125k to get each MEP elected, and they asked for donations of at least a £10k donation per MEP. Their expences although quite generous do require reciepts in the main, There is no evidence of any UKIP MEP's with their snouts in the trough. Unlike the LibLabCon at Westminster who have be 'at it' for years !! I am not connected with UKIP in any way, not even a member, but I trust UKIP to be a **** sight more honest than the present crop of MP's !! Enbrok
  • Score: 1
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